Internet Health Report high level status information between major ISPs -- agents on each backbone ping each other free version only contains US backbones Internet Storm Center diagrams about most frequent port scans -- 135, 80, 137 usually leading web site ugly as hell TCP/IP Pipe Scrubber - FREE this is fun -- THIS IS FUN, BELIEVE ME! also available as Enterprise Edition The Internet is Dying Internet infrastructure will remain -- as a carrier for the big media -- carrier layer, infrastructure layer -- content layer for many non-techies the Internet is a huge disappointment -- chaos, trash, fear, addiction Internet will become "a development that promises social control on a scale those quaint old 20th-century tyrants with their goofy moustaches could only dream about" There will only be a few players left AOL-TW, NewsCorp, Disney, Viacom AOL-TW, Viacom, MSN, ? BT, AT&T, SingTel, Sprint, ... CW, AOL, MSN, ? Microsoft (vertically diversified), IBM (riding on patents) -- Sun will survive? Massive concentrations not only media -- also in other sector (energy, infrastructure, ...) Microsoft buys whatever goes -- innovation in the face of MS? Media Concentration Berlusconism media concentration australia Rupert Murdoch and Kerry Packer -- casino, cable-TV, digital spectrum and broadband operation ninemsn partnership with .... Microsoft -- ninemsn.com.au homepage for every new PC all football, cricket, tennis rights Raise of CDNs CDNs distribute content to the periphery -- closer to the customer -- handled almost transparently -- branding remains CDNs co-locate special proxies with ISPs -- use their own hardware, software and protocols -- no more HTTP big players Akamai (12000 servers worldwide) -- Cisco CDN -- Digital Island Innovation fully controlled no individual innovation -- only with patent lawyers in your back -- only big players can afford that start-ups stand little chance -- only goal is buy-out by a large player? ISO asks for royalties fro country codes SCO asks for UNIX licences Eolas ask for plugin licences Interfaces get more complicated -- scattered 'standards' innovation become marketing efforts Innovation by Marketing companies invent technologies so difficult to use that you need development environment -- which these companies sell Internet is full of sick people addicts, gamers, DVD-watchers, 24/7 porn surfers, child porn, religious fanatics, scammers, hackers, spammers, ID theaves internet addiction South Korea has 25000! Internet Cafes -- 10 million broadband users 24-year-old Kim Kyung-jae collapsed and died after playing computer games at an internet cafe non-stop for 86 hours cyber crime Internet Scams Internet excellent tool for fraudsters via email -- chat get rich fast -- you have won in the lottery but you must pay a fee Nigerian Scam 419 frauds -- third to fifth largest industry in Nigeria ....requested by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company to contact you for assistance in resolving a matter... move these funds to another region. Meta Scam warning from scam -- information newsletter -- free checks SPAM CAUCE, The Coalition Against Unsolicited Commercial Email Google will become useless search engines like google will become less and less useful -- their asset is the ranking -- ranking will be undermined by the web itself link spammers: build huge farms of HTML pages linking to their primary site bombers: throwing huge amount of queries against the machine products: MoveableType blogs: trackbacking feature Moveable Type Trackback Feature auto-citation feature -- blogs referencing each other Moveable Type Google Microsoft wants to buy? http://www.infoworld.com/article/03/10/31/HNmsgoogle_1.html PageRank (TM) interprets a link from page A to page B as a vote, by page A, for page B pagerank problem sprinks leading competitor to the two giants, Overture's Content Match and Google's Adsense Programs. Kaltix personalized and context-sensitive search technology applied semantics CIRCA ontology, which "understands, organizes, and extracts knowledge from websites and information repositories in a way that mimics human thought". Internet Infrastructure Endangered protecting the perimeter -- protecting the core? massive overprovisioning -- replication -- diversified risk Internet Infrastructure all systems which guarantee the proper functioning of the core Internet -- routers -- root DNS major ISPs, CNN, Yahoo!, eBay, Microsoft, FBI, CERT -- do they belong to the infrastructure? Critical Infrastructure Assurance Group, CIAG Cisco initiative -- awareness/education/training -- incident response -- research DDoS Attacks 4000 DoS attacks each week difficult to cope with -- bogus requests from thousands of machines across the network usually completely automated Zombie(d) Machine under the control of hacker(s) -- usually remote control usually machines with high bandwidth but low user understanding windows computer vulnerabilities 94% of all consumer client software is Windows based (IDC) -- 97% of all desktops use Windows (onestat.com, 2002) steady increase in the ability for intruders to easily deploy large DDoS attack networks code red, nimda, Sobig, Kurnikova, Slammer, .... estimate 30 billions USD per worm -- 100 billion USD p.a. (mi2g Ltd, 2002) patches as service packs: aggregated, not immediate -- patches are cumbersome to install (download, click, click, click) -- the 'Microsoft Experience' Windows Complexity Windows API has thousands of system calls -- compared to a few hundred in other OSes -- source code increases by 35% p.a. Windows has to look for much backwards compatibility -- complex change management -- marketing driven feature creep Windows is 'tightly integrated' (aka monolithic) -- no room for 3rd party except for HW drivers -- OS lock-in Windows applications (MSIE) are tightly integrated -- application lock-in -- increase 200% in size p.a. sucessful strategy to lock out competition -- will be used with Longhorn as well (new API, new file system) law of diminishing return (80:20) fixing one flaw introduces others Moore's Law Gordon Moore, 1965: IC density increase is exponential over time currently CPU power doubles every 18 months computing power on the Internet doubles every 10 months storage density per dollar doubles every 9 months Metcalfe's Law "value" or "power" of a network increases in proportion to the square of the number of nodes on the network 3COM Reed's Law people organized in groups -- value increase exponentially -- much faster growth than predicted by Metcalfe's Law mailing lists -- chat rooms -- true ? -- usenet trolls Robert's Law skill of user is reciprocal with the processing power on the desktop Gates' Law The speed of software halves every 18 months -- bloatware syndrom